For sports fans, a ton of work goes into picking who will win a game, race, or other event. Many people look at historical performances to predict future outcomes, but really, there are thousands of variables that can affect how a player or team will perform in an entire season or from game to game. So how do you know which team or athlete to pick — and is it ever a good idea to go against the odds when predicting how a contest will play out?
These are some of the most important things that successful sports fans and analysts look at, how they know when backing an underdog is the right call, and some historical cases in which wagering on the long shot was the correct decision.
What Is an Underdog in Sports?
In sports, the underdog is whichever team or athlete is more likely to lose. Sometimes, contests aren’t evenly matched at all, so there’s a clear underdog and a team or athlete who should win. And other times, the odds might favor one team or player slightly over another, but the contest is evenly matched in general.
Watch for These Factors That Should Inform Your Predictions
Underdogs and long odds present a unique opportunity for people interested in sports betting or those who just love a good Cinderella story. But if you’re serious about winning your wagers, even when they’re placed on long odds, you need to know what information should inform your bets. These are a few common areas you should always check when deciding how to wager on an upcoming contest:
- Player and team stats: Historical and seasonal stats are two of the biggest sources of info for how you should bet.
- Player and team recent performances: Losing and winning streaks are absolutely a thing in professional sports. Saying an athlete is “on fire” is a sincere observation that he or she has been playing dominantly.
- Recent changes: Even small changes can make a huge difference in which way you should place a bet. A player may be sitting out for a game, or perhaps a hockey team’s lineup has been changed so that a line two player is now on line three. These little adjustments can totally alter a team’s chemistry and future success.
Note that in sports betting, unlikely odds aren’t just offered on teams that aren’t expected to win. Some bets are unlikely because they’re contingent on other wagers. For example, an accumulator bet is played on a sequence of games or on multiple events, such as the Honda Classic and U.S. Masters in golf.
Know When It’s Worth Backing an Underdog
Some people do get lucky when they make bets blindly just because they want to wager on a favorite player or a team they like. Or, they see that the odds are long and the winnings they’d net for wagering correctly are simply too enticing to pass up. Experienced betters, though, know it’s far better to do your research and try to recognize when the stars are aligning for an underdog team to make a serious go at defying the odds.
Of course, not all long-shot odds are for guesses at which team will win. A few simple roster changes can greatly increase a team’s odds of either winning some games or throwing the margins and beating the odds for things like total points scored.
It’s also important to remember that some of the biggest sports bets in history were placed when a team was the long shot — but didn’t stay that way the entire year. Bookkeepers do update the odds as the season goes on.
For example, a team may only be a long shot at first. As the year continues, they could become the favored victor. This is precisely what happened when the Kansas City Royals started the season in 2015 and went on to claim the pennant in five games against the New York Mets.
When Wagering on the Long Shot Was the Right Call
The longest odds ever paid for a sports bet was on a series of horse races. Fred Craggs accurately guessed the outcome of eight consecutive contests. Despite working against odds of 2,800,000 to 1, he picked each winner correctly and received millions for an initial wager valued at less than one dollar.
This is just one example of when going against long odds was the right call. Lots of luck is involved with accumulator bets like this, but it’s only one type of wager you can make against odds that stand to pay out a huge award. Check out more information about long odds and big wins in the infographic below.
