Betting without a strategy is a sure way to lose money. Seasoned and successful bettors understand that no one size fits all, and each approach applies to different sports and situations. It is not a secret that football and gambling are tightly coupled and if you want to be a part of it you need to know your stuff. Of course, research and performance tracking are essential when you want to guarantee long-term profits. Understanding the game of football, favourites, underdogs, current form, head-to-head history, derby factor, key players, injuries and what’s at stake for each match can help you predict which team is likely to offer more on the pitch.
For instance, if a team is battling to avoid relegation and playing against another team with nothing to play for other than pride, the underdog might just put in a stunning performance to win the game even though all bookies expect them to lose. Similarly, a favourite without the key players may not perform to the levels expected. As such, players should track the performances and news about the teams they back. Here’s an overview of the top three football betting strategies.
The Kelly Criterion Strategy
The Kelly Criterion formula calls for basic calculations that increase your odds of walking away with a profit. It combines probability and bankroll management and works best when dealing with a straightforward result involving a favourite and underdog. First, you’ll need to pick a match, get the odds from the bookie and work out the winning probability and bet value. For example, let’s say team A has a 2.50 odd to win against team B and has a 45% likelihood of winning.
The first step is to calculate the bet value by multiplying the probability and odds and subtracting 1. In this case, the bet value is 45% (or 0.45) times 2.50 minus 1, which is 0.125 (or 12.5%). If the value is negative, you should avoid making a bet. For instance, if the likelihood of winning is 39%, the calculation would produce a bet value of -2.5%. However, if the value is positive, you can proceed to the next step, i.e. dividing the bet value by the odd minus 1. In our case, the calculation is 12.5% (or 0.125) divide by (2.5-1), which is 0.08333 (or 8.33%).
The last bit of calculation factors your bankroll. Let’s say you have €200. The calculation will be 8.33% multiplied by 200, which is €16.66. If you are to bet on team A winning, you should stake no more than €16.66. The Kelly Criterion strategy helps you determine if the bet is worth making and how much you should risk, thereby increasing your win probability and managing your bankroll at the same time. Because of its calculations, the strategy may take some searching to find the best matches and odds.
Arbitrage Betting Strategy
If you’ve been experimenting with football betting strategies, you might have come across the arbitrage betting formula because it guarantees in different situations. Many UK players who bet on football using betting sites not covered by GamStop on NonGamStopSlots are sceptical about using arbitrage because one result, which can be a draw or one side winning, isn’t accounted for. Let’s say you have a bankroll of €200, and team A has an odd of 1.55 and team B an odd of 3.15.
You can calculate what percentage of the bankroll you should bet on each team to win. For instance, betting €135 on team A will win €209.25 (135 x 1.55). You’ll have a bankroll of €65 to bet on team B, which will result in a win of €204.75 (65 x 3.15). If you place these two unique bets, you are guaranteed a profit of €9.25 or €4.75 from your €200 stake. The caveat is a draw would ruin your chances and result in a €200 loss, so it’s essential to do your research and identify games that are likely to have one of two results.
Back and Lay Strategy
The back and lay strategy might seem like a simple betting formula but can result in more wins than losses if you know how and when to apply it. As the name suggests, there are two sides to the strategy; back and lay. Back means backing a team to win the match, while lay is all about betting against the backed outcome. While this sounds counterintuitive, there are unique situations where a back and lay strategy will result in guaranteed profits regardless of the outcome.
Firstly, you’ll need a free bet, which should be easy to find when signing up on a new sportsbook. Most free bets don’t involve a clear favourite, which is what you should be looking for to profit using back and lay strategy. For instance, let’s say you get a €10 free bet involving team A with a 2.50 odd of winning against team B, and another bookie offers 2.40 for team A not to win (i.e. draw or lose). If you bet on team A to win using your free bet, you’ll receive €15 (10 x 2.50 minus the €10 stake).
Your next step is to determine the lay bet that can guarantee a profit on another bookie. Let’s say you lay €10 for team A not to win at the 2.40 odd and the team draws or loses. You’ll receive €14 (10 x 2.40 minus the €10 stake). If your free bet wins, you’ll make a profit of €5 (the €15 minus €10 lay bet). On the other hand, if you lay bet wins, you’ll walk away with €14 and lose the €15 potential win from the backed bet. Either way, you’ll be walking away with a profit.
Summary
There are several other football betting strategies like Martingale, Goliath, and others. Some like the martingale formula should be avoided and only used in games with a 50/50 chance of winning, while others apply to specific sports and events. It is essential to understand how the formula works and calculate all outcomes to determine if the strategy is worth using in the particular match. Worth to mention, that you should control yourself and in case of any issues learn more about GamStop and its forums which will help you to be a healthy gambler. Finally, you should set realistic expectations and complete your research before backing a team.
