A punter is unlikely to just ever stick to match outright selections for football betting. When you see dominant teams like Liverpool and Manchester City in the Premier League, or Brazil to win each of their group stage matches at World Cup betting sites quoted at ridiculously odds-on prices, it wipes out the entire 1×2 market entirely.
So football betting alternatives are needed like perhaps, goalscoring betting markets. However, some punters won’t even touch them. But is there a viable way of approaching them that they do have some betting appeal?
Goalscorer Markets
There are different goalscorer markets, which we’ll get into in a little bit. But why are they seen as unfriendly areas of football betting? It is because the risk in them is just so high.
In a match outright selection, only one of three outcomes are going to happen. But in, for example, the first goalscorer market, you have 22 players on the pitch at the start of a match, and any of those could technically pop up with the opening strike.
But there are also substitutions to factor in when games are grinding along at a 0-0. Plus the fact that there may not be a goalscorer in the entire game. That’s a huge amount of variables to try and juggle.
So why do punters still like markets like first, last and anytime Goalscorer? It’s because of the large odds that exist on them.
Narrowing the Field
There are ways to narrow the options in a goalscorer market. You can simply do the obvious thing and look at strikers first. Those are the ones that you are going to see near the head of the goalscorer markets time and again. It makes sense, as forwards are predictably the most likely to get on the scoresheet.
But looking back at Premier League stats, you can historically see that around 50% of goals in the division are scored by forwards (including attacking wide players). But around 40% are netted by midfielders, which may be a slightly surprisingly high stat.
What that suggests is that midfielders make interesting propositions in the goalscorer markets. But it’s not worth just jumping into picking out a midfielder as every single anytime goalscorer bet that you make. The information should be broken down by club.
The Club Makes the Difference
Not all teams take the same tactical approach. Some teams play with only one striker up front, while others may go with two up top, some three. Those teams that do have only one forward on the pitch, give prime opportunities for dipping into midfielder-scoring.
Lone strikers generally hold up play and bring attacking midfield players into the frame. So clubs like that will have their percentage of goals by position, higher for midfielders than for any other type of team.
That is an important overview of the entire picture here. Punters have to examine each club on its merit. Take some time to see where the goals are coming from. You may just be able to open up the trends that can make goalscorer options a good alternative to the match outright.
First, Last or Anytime Goalscorer?
The three main goalscorer markets in football betting are first, last or anytime. Which of those are the best? For us, there is only one winner and that’s the anytime goalscorer.
- First goalscorer – That condition of picking the first goalscorer out of everyone on the pitch to net first, is just not worth the risk for the odds. Picking any player to score on the day is hard enough, let alone expecting them to net the opening goal. It’s probably only really worthwhile dipping into this goalscorer market if you expect a low-scoring game, so you may as well consider your pick as the first goalscorer.
- Last goalscorer – The first goalscorer may well be the last in the match too. This condition for the goalscorer market just adds another big unfavourable twist on things. You don’t know who is going to be on the pitch late into the game, so if playing it, it may be worth approaching in-play.
- Anytime goalscorer – Breaking down the goalscorer markets, the goal is to simply pick a player that’s going to hit the back of the net. This market gives the ideal balance between risk and odds for goalscorer options.
Exchange It
You are almost always going to find better goalscorer odds at a betting exchange. An equally big consideration for using an exchange is that you may be able to lay a goalscorer option based on your research. That would work well against a market favourite if you could find someone to match it.
Dual Options?
Goalscorer markets are notoriously difficult to get right. So don’t burden yourself with mashing them together with other betting options. The probability just sinks through the Earth and ends up somewhere on the other side of the planet when you do that.
It’s like looking at a scorecast bet, where the match outright and first goalscorer picks are combined. It is an unviable market for punters to tap into, as are wincasts and timecasts (the prediction of the first goalscorer’s goal).
Study the goalscorer statistics like average goals per game, and what percentage of goals by a certain player has been First or Last goals of matches. Look at team news and lean towards players who take free kicks in dangerous positions.
Just keep goalscorer markets simple. Done right, you should still be able to take a good enough price that you don’t need to complicate it with another condition. The odds on To Score 2+ or To Score Hattrick may be tempting, but that’s because it is such an unreasonable market.
Goalscorer Betting Promotions
To make goalscorer markets even more appealing, look around for football betting promotions if you are going down this road. You should be able to find either insurance or free bet specials covering goalscorer markets. You can have a look at football promotions of different bookmakers and choose those that suit you at Match.Center.
